In my January 13, 2026 post I disclose the purchase of 45 shares @ ~$535.7467 in a ‘Core’ account in the FFJ Portfolio.
The sole purpose of this post is to disclose the purchase of 55 shares @ ~$522.2094 in a ‘Side’ account in the FFJ Portfolio.
Valuation
Using my January 27 ~$522.2094 purchase price and the current adjusted diluted EPS broker guidance, we get:
- FY2025 – 36 brokers – mean of $16.50 and low/high of $16.29 – $16.69. Using the mean, the forward adjusted diluted PE is ~31.7.
- FY2026 – 36 brokers – mean of $19.15 and low/high of $18.80 – $19.67. Using the mean, the forward adjusted diluted PE is ~27.3.
- FY2027 – 30 brokers – mean of $22.30 and low/high of $21.67 – $22.92. Using the mean, the forward adjusted diluted PE is ~23.4.
MA is scheduled to release its results before the market opens on January 29. This will likely lead to revisions in broker estimates.
In my January 13 post I reflect the following:
Using my January 13 ~$535.75 purchase price and the current adjusted diluted EPS broker guidance, we get:
- FY2025 – 34 brokers – mean of $16.50 and low/high of $16.29 – $16.69. Using the mean, the forward adjusted diluted PE is ~32.5.
- FY2026 – 34 brokers – mean of $19.16 and low/high of $18.79 – $19.67. Using the mean, the forward adjusted diluted PE is ~28.
- FY2027 – 28 brokers – mean of $22.28 and low/high of $21.84 – $22.92. Using the mean, the forward adjusted diluted PE is ~24.
Revisions to these estimates are likely following the forthcoming release of Q4 and FY2025 results.
MA has a new $14B share repurchase program. I, therefore, anticipate the weighted average diluted shares outstanding in FY2026 could be ~898 – ~900 million. MA’s annual share based compensation, on the other hand, will likely only be ~$0.52B.
Earnings are subject to distortion. Cash generated from normal business operations, however, is much more difficult to manipulate. I, therefore, like to gauge a company’s valuation based on my forward FCF estimates.
MA’s annual FCF/Net Earnings from continuing operations hovers around 100%. MA’s valuation based on P/FCF per share will, in my opinion, be roughly similar to the forward adjusted diluted PE for FY2025.
Final Thoughts
Following my January 27 purchase, I currently hold 709 shares in ‘Core’ accounts and 355 shares in a ‘Side’ account in the FFJ Portfolio. Young investors I am helping on their journey to financial freedom also own MA shares. I do not, however, disclose details regarding their holdings.
MA has been my second largest holding for some time behind Visa (V). When I completed my 2025 Year-End Investment Holdings Review, MA shares were trading just shy of $571 and it was just over 5.574% of my total holdings. V represented just over 9.65% of my total holdings at the time of that review.
NOTE: MA is scheduled to release its Q4 and FY2025 results on January 29.
I wish you much success on your journey to financial freedom!
Note: Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to finfreejourney@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I am long MA.
Disclaimer: I do not know your circumstances and do not provide individualized advice or recommendations. I encourage you to make investment decisions by conducting your research and due diligence. Consult your financial advisor about your specific situation.
I wrote this article myself and it expresses my own opinions. I do not receive compensation for it and have no business relationship with any company mentioned in this article.
